Unlike the talking heads in the media, the PFR doesn't consider past performance in his analysis of games today. After the draft completed and the schedules were released the Steelers were a slightly fashionable pick to repeat, save for the masses picking New England with no concrete evidence at the time. After winning the Super Bowl with the leagues hardest schedule, they were coming into the 2009 with one of the easier schedules. Rashard Mendenhall was returning at full strength and the team said goodbye to veterans Larry Foote and Bryant McFadden with replacements we were led to believe would be an improvement. We were looking for our first repeat champs in over 5 years, and this would certainly cement Ben Roethlisberger as an elite QB and complete their standing as team of the decade.
So what went wrong? It's hard to pinpoint one particular aspect of their game that went wrong so let's just say it's a 'rich tapestry' of lapses that led to their current state. After a less than spectacular opening win they lost back to back games to the Bears (2 missed FG's) and the Bengals (inability to hold a 4th quarter lead). They followed this with 5 straight wins including impressive efforts against San Diego, Minnesota and Denver. Then the floodgates opened. This latest 5 game losing streak has seen constant special teams lapses, terrible offensive execution and the inability to D up when necessary. The only loss that can be discounted is when they hung in with a tough Baltimore team using Denis Dixon, a 3rd sting QB with 1 career pass to his credit before the game, but of course that's still a loss nonetheless.
Despite the large amount of problems it appears the biggest problem with this team is predictability. Rob Ryan, Defensive Coordinator of the Browns, installed a perfect game plan to keep the Steelers bogged down. He knew when to blitz and dared Roethlisberger to beat his man coverage. Unfortunately for Steeler fans, Roethlisberger had absolutely no answer for the cascading wave of defenders in his face. Once they took away the run they put Pittsburgh in constant 3rd and long situations, which the blitz of the Browns continued to snuff out. This was a defense ranked dead last in the league in total yards allowed and 26th in points surrendered. The predictability of Bruce Arians has hurt this team, and never was it more evident than tonight.
At 6-7 the Steelers will not be making the playoffs, and should at this point start looking to next season. Troy Polamalu has been too big a loss to overcome, so at this point he needs to shut it down and get ready for next year. Offensively, they can still play for a few moral victories such as Ben Roethlisberger becoming the first Steelers Quarterback to throw for 4,000 yards or Mendenhall reaching the 1,000 yard plateau. However unfortunate it may be for a team stocked with talent to miss the chance to defend their title, it brings to light an important lesson about the NFL. This is a copycat league, and if you aren't willing to change and be creative week to week then teams will find people who are. The Steelers are the latest to learn that NFL stands for 'Not For Long' when it comes to winning on reputation, and they certainly won't be the last.
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